1km Distribution Models

1Km Distribution Models, commissioned by IAEA and FAO in support of PATTEC

These maps were produced using multivariate analysis (logistic regression) to establish statistical relationships between the best estimate of the presence of the fly (‘observed’ or ‘training’ distributions largely derived from the Ford and Katondo series from the 1970's), and a series of potential predictor variables including agricultural, environmental, climatic, demographic and topographic parameters. The statistical relationships are used to prepare 1km resolution predictions of fly distribution. These maps are of the probability of presence, which allows a significantly more refined assessment of risk than the simple presence or absence estimates used to define the models. They may also highlight areas which the original maps did not identify as suitable for the fly, and as well as those which were defined as suitable but are not. The methods used to produce the West Africa and Uganda are reported in Wint (2001) and were used with only minor modifications for the other areas. The maps were produced as drafts, to be updated when sufficient systematic transect based collections of fly distribution data are available.

Enquiries to William Wint

These are the files as produced for the International Agencies - Click on Thumbnails to download png graphic, or pdf for pdf format. Files are A3 when printed. Re-designed graphics and the 1km resolution GIS format files can be downloaded from FAO PAAT

West Africa